Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.027903 0.031749 0.035954 0.040895 0.046549 0.052821 0.060313
2025-01-26 0.022476 0.027849 0.034259 0.042489 0.052799 0.065323 0.081742
2025-02-02 0.019578 0.025689 0.033425 0.043971 0.058030 0.076207 0.101620
2025-02-09 0.017545 0.024125 0.032866 0.045384 0.062950 0.086865 0.122144
2025-02-16 0.015449 0.022107 0.031323 0.045092 0.065283 0.094029 0.138450
2025-02-23 0.013937 0.020666 0.030330 0.045327 0.068208 0.102123 0.156792
2025-03-02 0.012473 0.019097 0.028930 0.044722 0.069698 0.108100 0.172426
2025-03-09 0.011603 0.018306 0.028572 0.045599 0.073459 0.117806 0.194857
2025-03-16 0.010559 0.017121 0.027463 0.045131 0.074957 0.123976 0.212069
2025-03-23 0.010041 0.016719 0.027538 0.046560 0.079662 0.135789 0.240048
2025-03-30 0.009034 0.015405 0.025984 0.045072 0.079213 0.138757 0.252727
2025-04-06 0.008270 0.014427 0.024896 0.044262 0.079825 0.143558 0.269136
2025-04-13 0.007417 0.013230 0.023347 0.042525 0.078668 0.145201 0.280109
2025-04-20 0.007160 0.013074 0.023621 0.044134 0.083868 0.159113 0.316391
2025-04-27 0.006913 0.012909 0.023857 0.045680 0.089079 0.173546 0.355360
2025-05-04 0.006674 0.012734 0.024049 0.047150 0.094274 0.188448 0.397018
2025-05-11 0.006235 0.012133 0.023379 0.046846 0.095858 0.196234 0.424501
2025-05-18 0.005900 0.011706 0.023002 0.047090 0.098577 0.206601 0.458772
2025-05-25 0.005498 0.011110 0.022240 0.046461 0.099377 0.212969 0.484800
2025-06-01 0.005290 0.010889 0.022213 0.047373 0.103584 0.227110 0.530340
2025-06-08 0.004961 0.010389 0.021567 0.046887 0.104644 0.234366 0.560471
2025-06-15 0.004839 0.010316 0.021809 0.048373 0.110301 0.252607 0.619389
2025-06-22 0.004460 0.009658 0.020746 0.046825 0.108789 0.254049 0.636718